After two gameweeks the plot across the Europa Conference League has thickened agreeably, in the manner of a stew or bisque with cornflour stirred into it. With four rounds of matches left, everything remains to play for. Chodźmy!
Pick of the Games:
AZ – Aston Villa (17:45 BST)
Ballkani – Astana (17:45 BST)
Fenerbahçe – Ludogorets (17:45 BST)
Lugano – Club Brugge (17:45 BST)
Bodø/Glimt – Beşiktaş (20:00 BST)
Genk – Ferencváros (20:00 BST)
Zrinjski – Legia Warszawa (20:00 BST)
Dinamo Zagreb – Viktoria Plzeň (20:00 BST)
1) Lille caught between a rock and a hard place
Lille‘s trip to the Faroe Islands to play KÍ last time out was a magnificent occasion, the sort of inspiring underdog story amid gorgeous scenery that is rapidly becoming the Conference League’s trademark. Unfortunately for the neutral, the actual football match was decidedly unequal to the spectacle around it, as Lille laid siege to the KÍ goal for 90 minutes but somehow contrived not to manage even a single shot on target in a 0-0 draw. That’s two points dropped for the French outfit, meaning their double-header with Slovan Bratislava over the next two gameweeks takes on added importance. Unfortunately for Les Dogues, these games take place amid an unexpectedly tough run of fixtures – having ground out a draw against Ligue 1’s surprise package Brest at the weekend, Slovan’s Thursday night visit is followed by games with fellow European contenders Monaco and Marseille before the return trip to Bratislava in a fortnight. Lille need to rest key players at some point in this run; with the Slovak champions on an eight-game winning streak in all competitions and set fair to qualify, when can they afford to?
2) KÍ and Olimpija already playing for pride
Faroese debutants KÍ put in an immensely creditable performance in their aforementioned goalless draw at home to Lille, even managing the only shot on target Tórsvøllur saw all night. Unfortunately, there are no bonus points for spunk in this game, and so after two matches KÍ find themselves with one point and one goal to their name. This is, nevertheless, one more point and one more goal than Olimpija Ljubljana have managed in their two games to date, having followed up their limp opening-game display away to Lille with a much more committed and battling display against Slovan that nevertheless ended in a 1-0 defeat. Neither of these two sides look particularly likely to qualify from the group. KÍ nevertheless have the clear advantage in the battle to dodge the wooden spoon. They have already won the Faroese top flight, which runs on a calendar-year rather than autumn-to-summer basis, at a canter, and can therefore relax and enjoy this game, whereas Olimpija are locked in a spell of deeply indifferent form, are already six points off top spot in the nascent Slovene title race, and will not be particularly looking forward to a midweek trip to the windswept North Atlantic.
3) War makes itself felt in Tel Aviv as well as Luhansk
Due to the deteriorating security situation resulting from the bloody Hamas-led attacks of October 7 and the Israeli state’s genocidal response, Maccabi Tel-Aviv’s home game against Zorya Luhansk has been postponed. The provisional date for the rearranged fixture is 25th November, although it seems unlikely to be played in Tel Aviv then either. One free and democratic state for all peoples, from the river to the sea.
4) Stuttering Gent can all but secure qualification
It seems unlikely that Gent (they of the dubious crest) will face similar issues, or indeed any issues at all, when they host Breiðablik this week. Since they qualified for the Conference League proper at the end of August, the Icelanders’ form has imploded; they have won only one of their last eight games, losing the other seven. At the heart of Breiðablik’s issues lie their leaky defence, who have shipped an alarming 19 goals in that eight-game spell. This will doubtless come as some relief for Gift Orban, Gent’s wunderkind Nigerian forward who for all the hype earlier this year has now gone more than two months without scoring. Indeed, the Belgian side as a whole could do with a win here; Gent, despite their strong showing in their win over Maccabi last time out, are winless with only two goals in their last four league games and are watching their title charge begin to fizzle out before their eyes. A European fixture against spirited but ultimately inferior opposition presents a clear opportunity for a reset.
5) Ballkani defy the odds yet again
Sometimes it’s nice to be completely wrong. After an anaemic showing in their first game away in Czechia, I wrote off Kosovar champions Ballkani despite their heroics in their first-ever European group stage campaign last season. Cue one of the upsets of the competition so far as Ballkani went toe-to-toe with Croatian heavyweights Dinamo Zagreb and won convincingly, not least due to some slapdash defending and even worse goalkeeping – particularly for Walid Hamidi’s late goal which made it 2-0 and wrapped up the points for Ballkani, a goal which not even the Algerian seemed to believe was happening until the ball sneaked in at the near post. Ballkani may well fancy their chances at home to an Astana side who have made heavy work of the competition so far. Humiliated 5-1 away to Dinamo on the opening day, Astana took a 1-0 lead against Viktoria Plzeň early in the second half, only for the usually profligate Czechs to make it 2-1 within a matter of minutes and then hold on for the win. I expected Plzeň and Astana to slug it out for second place in this group; the Kazakhs have a lot of work ahead of them to make that happen.
6) Battle of the dark horses in Zagreb?
Viktoria Plzeň are an odd bunch. They have won 7-1, 6-2 and 10-0 in domestic fixtures since qualifying for the Conference League, but are in no position to mount a title challenge and make the jaunt across the old Habsburg lands to Zagreb licking their wounds courtesy of a 3-0 drubbing away to mid-table Slovan Liberec. Added to this, Plzeň have been effective rather than impressive in their two Conference League group games so far (6 points from 1-0 and 2-1 wins). They are nevertheless in a commanding position atop the group, and any result other than a loss in Zagreb will leave them all but certain of qualification. This will come as scant comfort to Dinamo Zagreb, who as noted above suffered a defeat in Pristina last time out that was as deserved as it was humiliating. One loss at this stage of the competition is not terminal but, with Dinamo’s next game being the return fixture in Czechia, even a draw here will leave their position looking unexpectedly precarious. Whoever tops this group has the potential to make an intriguing run into the knockout stages; surprisingly, Dinamo do not yet look the most likely to accomplish it as we near the halfway stage.
7) Switzerland’s surprise package face a tough test of their credentials
I did not expect Lugano to sit top of this group on goals scored after two games. I imagine not many Lugano fans did either. After a tense but ultimately goalless draw in their opening fixture that would leave even most purists casting about for a crossword to fill out, Lugano travelled to the Bosphorus more in hope than expectation. They duly found themselves 2-0 down to Beşiktaş within an hour due to a well-taken Vincent Aboubakar, only to mount a comeback for the ages and win 3-2 after Valentin Rosier was sent off for a dreadful tackle. For all that their win in Istanbul will rightly live long in the memory, Lugano nevertheless face a rather tougher test this week. Club Brugge came away from a difficult trip to Norway with all three points courtesy of yet another goal from their talisman Hans Vanaken and, despite some truly wretched domestic form (3 draws and 2 defeats in their last five games), are the best-drilled and most cohesive side in this group. Lugano may well be punished if their defending is as erratic as it was against Beşiktaş – but if they can pull off another upset, they will be on the verge of a knockout stage few back in the summer would have dreamed of them reaching.
8) Crunch time for Group D’s Bs
Beşiktaş are enduring a season to forget. As in their defeat to Lugano, a red card proved their undoing against Galatasaray at the weekend, and the Black Eagles now find themselves not only 9 points behind Galatasaray but 11 behind Fenerbahçe. The Conference League has not exactly been an idyll either – Beşiktaş have conceded the most goals of anyone in the group and, after Eric Bailly’s thunderous last-minute header into his own net against Lugano, have only one point from two games. Norwegian neutrals’ favourites Bodø/Glimt, stars of the 2021-22 Conference League, have likewise failed to impress in their campaign to date, although they are at least on the brink of a third Eliteserien title in four years. They are, remarkably, one of only two teams in the Conference League yet to score a goal (the other being Olimpija) – although, given they have netted 17 times in their last five domestic fixtures, this may well prove a fluke. Happily for the neutral, a draw this week suits neither Bodø/Glimt nor Beşiktaş, so expect both Bs to go for goal early and often in a bid to gain the advantage, and put themselves back in qualification contention, before the rematch in Istanbul in a fortnight.
9) Zrinjski and Legia both looking to reset
Group E is absurdly finely poised after two rounds. All four sides have 3 points and a goal difference of 0, having won one game by one goal and then lost the other by one goal. Zrinjski, having scored and conceded one more goal, sit joint-top of the group by virtue of having beaten AZ in their first ever European group stage game. They came agonisingly close to sitting outright top of the group, looking set fair for a 0-0 draw at Villa Park only to concede a later winner to John McGinn with almost the last kick of the game. Legia found themselves similarly frustrated last time out, albeit with fewer excuses, going 1-0 down to AZ and failing to equalise despite AZ having a man sent off on the hour mark shortly afterwards. This match, in the mountain valleys of Herzegovina, therefore offers a chance for both teams to shake off their respective heartaches last time out and nab a win. It is the Croat-Bosnian side who will arguably be the more optimistic, however – Legia have lost their last three successive league games. They’re due a red card as well.
10) Villa need to learn how to win away
Aston Villa have played seven home games in all competitions this season. Barring their second-string side’s Carabao Cup defeat to Everton, they have won every single one, scoring 21 goals and conceding 3. Aston Villa have played seven away games in all competitions this season. Barring their Conference League playoff win over Hibernian, they have won two – away to Chelsea, where the Blues went a man down, and away to Burnley, who look set for relegation. If Villa want to win this competition, which remains a realistic aim, they need to get better at grinding out results away from home. AZ also have an imperious home record, having won six of the eight home games they’ve played this season by an aggregate score of 19-3, and rebounded from their opening-day humiliation in Bosnia to capably see off Legia last time out, so this is a very good litmus test for Unai Emery’s men. Whoever wins the Villa-AZ double header should ultimately top this group comfortably, despite both sides’ opening-week wobbles. With Villa’s Ollie Watkins having relocated his scoring touch in recent weeks and AZ’s Vangelis Pavlidis among the most in-form strikers in Europe, expect goals.
11) Ferencváros – favourites to qualify?
The Europa Conference League scheduling gods have been very obliging in serving up some intriguing double-headers at the midway point of the group stage, and Group F is no exception. It is, unsurprisingly, topped by a team whose name starts with F – rather more surprisingly, that team is not Fiorentina. Ferencváros top the group on goals scored, but will be gutted not to lead outright, having gone 2-0 up to Fiorentina last time out only to suffer a 93rd-minute equaliser. That draw, in what ought to be the Hungarians’ toughest fixture of the group stage, has nevertheless blown Group F wide open, and if Ferencváros can take heart rather than despair from their battling display they may be too much for Genk to handle. The Belgian side will nevertheless have plenty to say themselves. Genk have proven inordinately fond of draws this season, including their own 2-2 draw at home to Fiorentina, but were professional in taking and holding an early lead in an emphatic 2-0 win away at Čukarički last time out. They come into this game on the back of a 4-0 victory over Mechelen that has put paid to their domestic draw streak too. One significant factor in Genk’s favour: Ferencváros striker Varga Barnábas, who has amassed an impressive 17 goals in 19 club games this season, is due to miss this game through injury.
12) Now or never for I Viola
Fiorentina are famous for two things: their glorious purple kits and their propensity to self-destruct at particularly inopportune moments. The Conference League, which they came within a hair’s breath of winning last season, has allowed Fiorentina to amply showcase both; two points from two 2-2 draws in two games is not the sort of return a side of their abilities would have expected before a ball were kicked this season. Thankfully for long-suffering Florentines, their mid-stage double header is against Serbian side Čukarički, who are the weakest side in this group by a considerable margin and who, after two anaemic defeats in succession, are one of only five sides of the competition’s 32 still to be sat on nul points. Win both their next two games, and Fiorentina will have on eight points and be within touching distance of the knockout phase; drop any points at all and they will face the distinctly unappetising prospect of having to go to Budapest and get something.
13) Eintracht can continue their upward trajectory
Eintracht Frankfurt were deeply uninspiring when they limped to a 1-0 win over Aberdeen in their first Conference League game this season, and were deserved losers in a display of immense profligacy throughout a feisty game in Thessaloniki last time out. They will nevertheless be heading for the halfway point with wind in their sails, having finally turned a corner domestically after a truly wretched start to the season. Two wins on the bounce have them seventh in the Bundesliga. HJK, meanwhile, having just clinched their fourth successive Veikkausliiga title in heroically unconvincing fashion, are unlikely to get out of this group after slipping to a 1-1 draw in Aberdeen last time out and consequently have very little to play for. The Finnish side getting any result in Frankfurt would be a big (and very entertaining) upset that would leave this group wide open into its latter stages. Don’t bet on it though.
14) PAOK in the driving seat
After making heavy weather of their first group game, a 3-2 win in the acronym derby against HJK, PAOK produced a counterattacking masterclass at home to Eintracht to top Group G with maximum points. (Eintracht have only ever visited the Toumba once before, in the 1981-82 Cup Winners’ Cup first round second leg; PAOK won 2-0 on the night but lost on penalties.) Aberdeen have climbed out of their early-season nadir, entertainingly getting Michael Beale sacked by Rangers in the process, but are still mired in the bottom half of the Scottish Premiership. That their poor finishing last time out led to them having to claw back a late draw at home to Finnish opposition is indicative of their broader level. The trip to the storm-battered east coast of Scotland will be a gruelling one for the Greeks, but Pittodrie will hold little fear for them – a win would leave them overwhelmingly likely to qualify, and in a strong position to emulate their run to the 2021-22 Conference League quarter-finals.
15) Fenerbahçe are the Conference League’s form team
Fenerbahçe have played 17 games in all competitions this season. They have won every single one. Having imposed themselves on a potentially tricky Europa League group last season, they are well and truly repeating the feat in the Conference League. Whisper it quietly, but they are probably the most plausible Turkish candidate to win a European competition since fierce rivals Galatasaray picked up both the UEFA Cup and the Super Cup in 2000. Despite totally dominating Trnava in their last Conference League game, Fener left it late to prevail, but duly grabbed the win courtesy of a Joshua King (remember him?) brace. Fred continues to look a man reborn in midfield, coming off the bench to grab a third assist in two games against the Slovaks, while the Turkish side have goal threats throughout the squad. This is unfortunate for Ludogorets, who followed up a thumping win over Trnava in their first game with a sublimely awful showing against Nordsjælland last time out, losing 7-1. (Nordsjælland had eight shots on target. Ludogorets keeper Sergio Padt has not appeared in either of their league games since.) It’s not impossible that the Bulgarian side will become the first team in any competition to get a result out of Fenerbahçe this season. But it doesn’t look particularly likely either.
16) Prolific Nordsjælland should find joy again
Despite losing 3-1 away to Fenerbahçe in their opening game, Nordsjælland are the Conference League’s top scorers after their shellacking of Ludogorets, to the delight of deeply incurious journalists everywhere. Spartak Trnava, still mired in mid-table in what looks set to be the most competitive Slovak 1. liga season in many years, would doubtless rather not be hosting the Danes this week, especially on the heels of a dispiriting home defeat to fellow Conferencers Slovan Bratislava at the weekend. Still, needs must, and Spartak need to start getting points on the board sooner rather than later if they want this campaign to go down as anything other than deeply underwhelming. Nordsjælland have actually been a little goal-shy domestically of late but will still fancy their chances of all but securing qualification in this double-header, thereby resolving a group that looked rather more intriguing after its first week than it did after its second.
