The judge smiled. Men are born for games. Nothing else.
Can you feel it? Spring is in the air. The lengthening days sing of its return. And spring means European knockout football. In the Conference League, Europe’s premier continental competition, that means the eight Group Stage runners-up facing off against the Europa League’s eight third-placed teams for a spot in the Conference League round of 16. Without further ado, let’s dive into the ties!
SK Sturm Graz – ŠK Slovan Bratislava
Slovan Bratislava are something of an enigma. I still have no idea how good they are. A point at home to Group A winners Lille in their fourth game suggested they might be capable of a serious run at this season’s knockouts; a loss at home to Olimpija Ljubljana in their final game, a red card leading to a collapse in organisation, poured a fair quantity of cold water on that idea. Tonight’s opposition should prove clarifying. Sturm Graz are second in the Austrian Bundesliga, for once a mere two points behind perennial (and justly despised) leaders Red Bull Salzburg. They are at this level having finished a distant third in an admittedly very strong Europa League group, never coming close to challenging Sporting or Atalanta for the top two spots and only avoiding the wooden spoon (which went to Raków Częstochowa) on goal difference. Graz have an eclectic squad, with last season’s Austrian Cup hero Manprit Sarkaria still yet to score in continental competition, but keep an eye out for William Bøving – the young Danish forward has three of Graz’s paltry six European goals this season. Slovan’s David Strelec, meanwhile, has yet to reproduce his fine league form in Europe – could this be the tie where he finally makes the difference?
Prediction: A draw in the first leg and a Slovan win in the second leg to send them through.
Olympiakos SFP – Ferencvárosi TC
This tie could be one of the highlights of the round. Ferencváros were actually unbeaten in Conference League Group F, two of their four draws coming against group winners Fiorentina, with talismanic Norwegian midfielder Kristoffer Zachariassen’s two goals in their final two games making all the difference (and condemning Belgian side Genk to elimination). The delightfully-named late bloomer Varga Barnabás is also enjoying a strong season and represents real quality up-front, while versatile Latvian midfielder Čebrails Makreckis has proven an unexpectedly solid option at right-back. The Hungarian side are a well-balanced outfit capable of putting complacent opposition to the sword. Greek giants Olympiakos, meanwhile, were always likely to finish in third place in a Europa League group that also featured West Ham, Freiburg and FK TSC, but will perhaps still be smarting at the manner of their 5-0 defeat away to Freiburg in their penultimate game. Moroccan duo Ayoub El Kaabi and Youssef El-Arabi are a formidable pair of attacking options up-front, while on-loan Wolves winger Daniel Podence, back at his former club in an attempt to rekindle his form, offers trickery from the flanks. Expect goals.
Prediction: Ferencváros narrowly win both legs.
Molde FK – Legia Warszawa
Molde come into this tie on the back of a disappointing 2023. They won the Norwegian Cup, so will play in next season’s Europa League qualifiers, but finished a distant fifth in the Eliteserien. Thanks to the Norwegian league being a calendar-year competition, they haven’t played competitively since a 5-1 Europa League defeat away to Xabi Alonso’s Leverkusen™ that could best be described as “chastening”. Luckily for Molde, the Polish Ekstraklasa also takes a long winter break despite running across calendar years, so Legia Warszawa have little in the way of fitness advantage. The Poles have, however, proven themselves perfectly at home in this competition, shunting AZ into third place and finishing second behind Aston Villa (having beaten Unai Emery’s men at home). Slovenian centre-forward Blaž Kramer has underwhelmed domestically but made all the difference for Legia in Europe, scoring decisive goals against both AZ and Zrinjski to ensure Legia’s place in the knockouts. Molde’s biggest concern, meanwhile, will be their defence – they scored an impressive 12 times in their Europa League group but conceded just as many, with neither their very porous back three nor either of the keepers tried behind it consistently convincing. If Legia get opportunities to play on the break the way they did against Aston Villa, they could well find themselves in the round of 16.
Prediction: An away win for Legia in this leg, followed by a score draw in Warszawa to send them through.
Royale Union Saint-Gilloise – Eintracht Frankfurt
Union Saint-Gilloise, Belgian football’s great gatecrashers, were not quite able to repeat last season’s continental successes, finishing third in a Europa League group they really ought to have qualified from. The reason for this was simple: they didn’t score a single goal away from home in the course of drawing one game 0-0 and losing the other two. Given that they are top of the Belgian league and chasing a first title in 89 years, this lack of focus is understandable. It also presents a clear opportunity for Eintracht Frankfurt to finally find some consistent form. Die Adler have rebounded from a calamitous start to their season and now sit sixth in the German Bundesliga, firmly in the European conversation, but are still yet to win more than three consecutive games in all competitions at any point this season. They are here after finishing a distant second in their Conference League group, having lost away to Aberdeen and both home and away against gutsy Greek outfit PAOK. Manager Dino Toppmöller has very little experience at this level – Eintracht really ought to win this tie comfortably, but it’s safe to expect some level of chaos despite that.
Prediction: USG win the first leg, Eintracht win the second to go through on goal difference.
AFC Ajax – FK Bodø/Glimt
Remember when Ajax looked like they might genuinely get relegated earlier this season? That was great fun. Unfortunately they’re now fifth in the Eredivisie, not remotely in a position to challenge for the title but still likely to limp into some form of European competition next season. This revival of sorts came too late for Ajax to make any impact on their Europa League group, however – they won their first game of the group stage on the final day, beating AEK Athens courtesy of a brace from the ever-improving Chuba Akpom and thus ensuring they didn’t finish last, but were still six points behind Marseille in second place. The opportunity is there for Bodø/Glimt, stalwarts of this competition, to take another illustrious scalp after they finished second behind an imperious Club Brugge in their Conference Group. They will be rustier than Ajax due to the aforementioned winter break, but they come into this fixture as Norwegian champions for the third time in four years (having never previously won the top flight!). Stable on and off the pitch, organised and well-liked, Bodø/Glimt are everything this iteration of Ajax are not. They will nevertheless need to be wary of Akpom and Brian Brobbey if they hope to progress, but some solace can be taken from Ajax’s wretched defence; the fallen Dutch giants have kept three (3) clean sheets in thirty games this season, with the last coming in mid-November.
Prediction: Bodø/Glimt to advance courtesy of a draw here followed by a second-leg win.
Real Betis Balompié – GNK Dinamo Zagreb
What would have been an intriguing tie even a couple of years ago is now a wildly imbalanced one on paper – and not in Dinamo Zagreb‘s favour. Croatia’s most illustrious side have fallen victim to a slow but ever-clearer process of decline, and were frankly dismal in their Europa Conference group. That they ultimately finished five points clear of Astana in third is a greater testament to how poor Astana and Ballkani were than to any quality on Dinamo’s part; despite my lofty pre-competition predictions, they were deservedly beaten twice-over by group winners Viktoria Plzeň. Club favourite Bruno Petković might cause Betis problems from his centre-forward berth, but the Andalusian side – enjoying an almost-unprecedented spell of dominance over city rivals Sevilla – really ought to have little to fear. Their squad, absolutely replete with Guys you’ve heard of before (Marc Roca, Juan Miranda, Claudio Bravo, Sokratis, Isco, Hector Bellerín, World Cup winners Guido Rodríguez and Germán Pezzella, Nabil Fekir, William Carvalho, Ayoze Perez, Willian José), itself ought to have done better than third place in a Europa League group featuring Rangers and Sparta Praha, but there are few better places to start making amends than this tie with Dinamo.
Prediction: Betis win both legs.
Servette FC – PFC Ludogorets Razgrad
I had no idea Servette are based in Geneva until the other day. Every day’s a school day. Servette themselves got well and truly schooled in the Europa League, finishing third behind Slavia Praha and Roma – an eye-watering eight points behind Roma in second at that, despite managing a faintly inexplicable draw against them. That draw aside, the other four of Servette’s five points came from their two games against Sheriff Tiraspol (remember when they were good in the Champions League?) and they only scored four goals in six games, shipping thirteen in the process. The available European evidence, despite Servette’s impressive domestic recovery after a woeful early-season slump, suggests that they are perhaps the weakest team to have dropped down to the Conference. That will come as some relief to the bafflingly inconsistent Ludogorets, who are into the knockouts as a consequence of a 1-0 victory against Nordsjælland. Ludogorets lost the corresponding fixture in Denmark 7-1 back in October. That 1-0 win over Nordsjælland came courtesy of a goal from 26-year-old midfielder Jakub Piotrowski; it was also his 26th career goal, almost half of which (12) have come this season. Ludogorets have, as with Legia Warszawa, only played the one competitive match since their last Conference League fixture in December; Servette will need to capitalise on that potential rustiness to have much hope of making any further impression on this competition.
Prediction: Draw in the first leg, Ludogorets win in the second and go through.
Maccabi Haifa FC – KAA Gent
Given the precedent set by UEFA with regards to Russia, Israeli teams should not be playing in UEFA competition. Maccabi Haifa will be playing this “home” fixture in Hungary, as the IOF’s ongoing genocidal campaign in Gaza and increasingly bloody provocation of Lebanon mean that Haifa is not considered safe for continental fixtures. KAA Gent, they of the dubious crest, finished second in their Conference League group as a consequence of losing away to Maccabi Tel-Aviv (that game was played in Serbia) on Group B’s final day. They find themselves in increasingly wretched domestic form; they last won a game away at Kortrijk on Boxing Day. To add to their woes, the immensely gifted but inconsistent young forward Gift Orban left for Lyon in the winter transfer window. Coupled with the departures of Malick Fofana (also to Lyon) and talismanic centre-forward Hugo Cuypers (to the MLS), none of whom have truly been replaced in kind, it could be a gruelling tie for Gent despite Maccabi’s own deficiencies. It’s the hope that kills you.
Prediction: Maccabi Haifa win the first leg in a “”feelgood story””, Gent go through after winning the second.
