There are twelve weeks left until Athens is graced by the 2024 Europa Conference League Final, in what will clearly be the greatest sporting event in Greek history. As that date with destiny looms, the the eight Group Stage winners face the eight survivors of the First Knockout Round for a place in the quarter-finals. Despite having called every single one of the eight First Knockout Round ties incorrectly, I will march on with them too. Eikime!
Pick of the Round:
AFC Ajax – Aston Villa FC (17:45 GMT)
Royale Union Saint-Gilloise – Fenerbahçe SK (20:00 GMT)
SK Sturm Graz – Lille OSC
Lille, in their second season under Paulo Fonseca, have emphasised function over form this season. In a Ligue 1 campaign where defensive nous has been the key to virtually every side battling for European qualification, Les Dogues’ parsimony has stood them in good stead despite a rough patch of recent form. This pattern repeated itself in Europe, where Lille scored 10 goals, while conceding only two, in the course of topping their group without defeat. Yusuf Yazıcı, who at one point looked set to leave the Stade Pierre-Mauroy, has been their key man in this season’s Conference League, scoring one goal in each of their four group stage wins, ably assisted by former Newcastle United legend Rémy Cabella. Аs if that weren’t enough, club record signing Jonathan David has recently hit a patch of goalscoring form so purple that Fabrizio Romano and his agent may succeed in landing him a big move this summer, while the young centre-back Leny Yoro and goalkeeper Lucas Chevalier have both enjoyed outstanding campaigns. The latter would be within his rights to hope for a France call-up before too long. Sturm Graz, meanwhile, are one half of an Austrian title race that is perilously close to being interesting and performed excellently in dispatching Slovan Bratislava in their first knockout tie. There is, ultimately, little shame for any club outside the elite in finishing third behind Atalanta and Sporting in a Europa League group, however distant the third place might be. For Graz’s European journey to endure into the spring, however, they will need key players like new signing Mika Biereth (on loan from Arsenal after being recalled from a successful autumn stint with Motherwell) to play the games of their lives – and all this without first-choice goalkeeper Kjell Scherpen, felled by a cruciate ligament injury.
Prediction: For all Sturm Graz’s commendable work in getting this far, it will be a major upset if Lille don’t make it through to the quarter-finals. I wouldn’t rule out a draw in this first leg, though.
Olympiakos SFP – Maccabi Tel-Aviv FC
The first of two ties that should not be taking place this evening sees Olympiakos playing host to Maccabi Tel-Aviv in Piraeus. (As Israel’s genocidal campaign in the Gaza ghetto rolls on, UEFA would rather look elsewhere, and so the second leg of this tie will be played in Serbia.) The away side finished top of a gentle Conference League group and are top of their domestic league, whereas Olympiakos finished third in a tricky Europa League group behind West Ham and Freiburg and then showed admirable sangfroid in dispatching Ferencváros in their First Knockout Round tie. Ayoub El Kaabi scored the solitary goal in each leg of the 2-0 aggregate win, his latest contributions to a fine personal campaign, and never looked particularly like letting their grip on the tie loosen. Despite some clueless commentator on all things Europa Conference League advising his readership to “expect goals.” Olympiakos have the added incentive of this season’s final taking place at the home of their hated rivals AEK – can they harness that to equal or even surpass PAOK’s run to the 2021-22 Conference League quarter-finals?
Prediction: Olympiakos to win the home leg and then progress courtesy of a draw away from home.
Molde FK – Club Brugge KV
At the risk of cursing myself yet again, this ought to be an excellent tie. I did not fancy Molde to get past Legia Warszawa in their first knockout round tie, especially as they were coming off a long winter break and a disappointing 2023 season, but they dispatched the Polish giants with real skill – after almost letting a three-goal lead slip in the first leg, they went to Warszawa 3-2 up but under immense pressure, only to pull off a counterattacking masterclass via another barrage of early goals. Their 6-2 aggregate win was one of the most impressive results of the round. Key to that win was the 32-year-old striker Fredrik Gulbrandsen, who has never been especially prolific (career-best goals to games return: 14 in 28 in 2014, during his first stint at Molde) but nevertheless bagged four(!) goals across the two games against Legia to singlehandedly swing the tie in favour of Romsdal’s finest. Club Brugge will represent a stern test. The Belgian side, despite being horribly off the pace domestically, were one of the Conference League group stage’s most impressive teams, winning five of their six games. The only outlier was an unfortunate draw at home to an otherwise awful Beşiktaş side in their very first game. Key to Brugge’s hopes of progression is their towering captain, club legend Hans Vanaken, who scored in four of the five group stage games for which he was available. He is ably assisted by Andreas Skov Olsen and Thiago (not that one), while certified Barclays man Simon Mignolet has presided over one of the competition’s meanest defences. Brugge are the favourites, but can Molde exploit that pressure and equal Bodø/Glimt’s 2021/22 run to the quarter-finals?
Prediction: If Brugge bring their European rather than domestic form to Norway it’s hard to look past them.
AFC Ajax – Aston Villa FC
Enter what is fairly unambiguously the glamour tie of the Second Knockout Round, as two sides with five European Cups between them (four of which are Ajax‘s) do battle for a quarter-final spot. It is an unfortunate time for the Dutch side to be hosting Aston Villa, with Villa’s recovery from a winter lapse in form coinciding with the petering-out of Ajax’s own surge away from their early-season relegation battle. De Godenzonen did well to overcome an impressive Bodø/Glimt side in their first knockout round tie, mounting stirring late comebacks in both matches, but will face a challenge of a different order in hosting the competition’s favourites. It is debatable whether the January acquisition of 33-year-old homophobe and former Sunderland player Jordan Henderson has really strengthened Ajax, while the absence of both Stevens (Berghuis and Bergwijn) represents a further blow, but with Chuba Akpom and Brian Brobbey both rediscovering their form it would be unwise to rule out Ajax completely. Unai Emery’s men will nevertheless be confident of progression. Ollie Watkins is in luminous form with 31 goals and assists in 37 games in all competitions this season, Leon Bailey finally looks like the player who electrified the Bundesliga in his Leverkusen days, while Emi Martínez is a man for the big occasion and Pau Torres has grown into a pillar at the back.
Prediction: Unai Emery has lost one Europa League and Conference League knockout tie in his entire storied career. That tally should not be added to here.
Royale Union Saint-Gilloise – Fenerbahçe SK
Union Saint-Gilloise dropped out of their Europa League group in no small part due to having their focus firmly on a first league title in nearly a century. It was therefore (he says, covering his back) not entirely unreasonable to suspect that they might be undone when faced with the pressure of a European knockout tie against a club as prominent as Eintracht Frankfurt. Not so. Despite going two goals down in the first 10 minutes of the first leg, Union showed the grit and steel they needed to fight back and then snatch a win in the away leg. They will need that composure when facing a Fenerbahçe side at the heart of one of the most compelling Turkish title races in years. Fener, despite needing a win on the last day to ensure qualification from an unexpectedly knotty group, were one of the group stage’s outstanding teams, with the likes of Fred (yes, that one), Cengiz Ünder and Sebastian Szymański playing with real verve behind a rotating forward cast of Michy Batshuayi, Joshua King and Edin Džeko. Fener’s defence occasionally let them down in the group stage, no more so than when an injury-ravaged backline was vivisected in the course of a 6-1 defeat away to Nordsjælland. Bolstered over the winter, however, Fener should present USG with a formidable challenge and may fancy a deep run into the knockouts for themselves.
Prediction: Fenerbahçe progress, goals aplenty.
Servette FC – FC Viktoria Plzeň
Arguably the most straightforward tie of the round. Servette drew the kindest opponent of the first knockout round in Ludogorets and still rather laboured to progression, racking up 23 shots without scoring at home then nicking the only goal of the tie away in Bulgaria despite being outplayed in turn. Viktoria Plzeň are likely to be savvier. The Czech side put on a fine exhibition of footballing brutalism in the group stage, becoming only the second side in Conference history (after West Ham last season) to win all six group games while only conceding one goal in the process. Their group looked a potentially tricky one on paper, but Plzeň swept aside all comers and despite the lack of star power are a formidable unit perfectly built for tournament football – which is, as the old truisms go, all about minimising risk. Servette also have to contend with the enticing prospect of their first league title in 25 years, whereas Plzeň are comfortably third place in the Czech top flight but firmly out of contention for the title. The conditions are aligning perfectly for an unexpectedly deep run into the knockouts; can they take it?
Prediction: Plzeň go through commandingly, with neither leg likely to spark a case of Neutral’s Delight.
GNK Dinamo Zagreb – PAE PAOK
Of the eight teams who finished second in their Conference League groups and thereby qualified for the First Knockout Round, Dinamo Zagreb were the only ones to make it into the Second – and that despite drawing Betis. At the risk of talking myself out of relevance here, I still don’t quite understand how Dinamo managed it. They were largely unconvincing in the group stage even against Ballkani, who suffered from a bad case of second-season syndrome, and are presently on course to record their worst Croatian league finish since 2005. They have proven (over-)reliant on the goals of club stalwart Bruno Petković, although there is value in having a dependable goalscorer in knockout football. Aiming to bring Dinamo’s slightly bizarre campaign to a halt are PAOK, one of the competition’s surprise packages after finishing unbeaten top of Group G. Despite the presence of Eintracht Frankfurt, PAOK in fact only dropped two points in the entire group stage, courtesy of a draw at home to Aberdeen where they had been 2-0 up after 15 minutes. Talismanic winger Andrija Živković has been crucial to PAOK’s progression this season, his threat compounded by new arrival Kirill Despodov on the other flank, while there is intrigue in the form of PAOK’s goalkeeper Dominik Kotarski – an alumnus of Dinamo’s once-famed youth academy. As with Olympiakos, PAOK have the added incentive of the final being in a rival’s ground; can they hold on in the away leg then harness the powerful atmosphere of the Toumba, which served them so well against Eintracht, to get there?
Prediction: Draw in the first leg, PAOK to progress with a home win in the second.
Maccabi Haifa FC – ACF Fiorentina
The Israeli campaign to turn southern Lebanon into a wasteland and call it peace continues apace, with UEFA steadfastly ignoring actions that would merit suspension or expulsion in any other case. Haifa, 25 miles from the Lebanese border, is ostensibly at risk of retaliation for this enormous crime and so, as in the First Knockout Round, Maccabi Haifa will play the “home” leg of this tie at Budapest’s Bozsik Aréna. The opposition charged with succeeding where Gent failed and knocking Haifa out are Fiorentina, still unbeaten after three group stage wins and three draws but blighted by their habitual domestic inconsistency, having only won two of nine league games since the turn of the year. I Viola are nevertheless vastly superior to Haifa on paper, with their relative bluntness at centre-forward compensated for by the directness of Nicolás González on the wing and the midfield guile of Serie A stalwart Giacomo Bonaventura. Fiorentina will be hoping to surpass last season’s heartbreaking defeat to West Ham in the Conference League final; now would be a good time for them to find firmer form.
Prediction: Fiorentina to win both legs.
