Ἀνερρίφθω κύβος, said Caesar – but as we, dear reader, enter Gameweek 4 of Europe’s premier continental club competition, we must ask: who are the Conference’s Pompeys? Its Octavians? Will I return to this analogy later in the piece? (No.) The knockouts beckon to some, elimination to others. Let us wade into the quiet of the stream together.
Pick of the Games:
Viktoria Plzeň – Dinamo Zagreb (17:45 GMT)
Beşiktaş – Bodø/Glimt (17:45 GMT)
Ferencváros – Genk (17:45 GMT)
Legia Warszawa – Zrinjski Mostar (17:45 GMT)
Olimpija Ljubljana – KÍ (20:00 GMT)
Aston Villa – AZ (20:00 GMT)
Slovan Bratislava – Lille OSC (20:00 GMT)
Club Brugge – Lugano (20:00 GMT)
1) Olimpija heading for the exit door
It’s hard not to feel a little sorry for Olimpija Ljubljana. They reached this season’s Conference League group stage, their first appearance in European group competition, in the exact same way as fellow debutants KÍ – victories in the first two Champions League qualifying rounds, a defeat in the third sending them to the Europa League playoffs, a defeat there dropping them down to the Conference. The Slovenes have, sadly, had a rather less enjoyable debut campaign than the Faroese. Olimpija are, at the halfway point of the group stage, the only team in the competition yet to score a goal, and their 3-0 defeat in Tórshavn saw them reduced to background characters in the KÍ fairy-tale. As the return leg in Ljubljana looms, Olimpija – whose domestic form has also suffered badly since the onset of the group stage, an important win over Celje last Sunday aside – have one last realistic chance to get points on the board and take some positives from what has thus far been an utterly chastening campaign. Unfortunately KÍ, rested after the conclusion of the Faroese league (which they won handily), suddenly look like they have a puncher’s chance of qualifying from Group A should they win this match, while their talisman Árni Frederiksberg is second in the Conference League assist charts and in rare form. There could be more pain to come for an Olimpija side whose 2022/23 league and cup double suddenly feels very remote.
2) Lille have come through a tough period in good shape
“It’s been tiring on the legs”, as the staple Football Manager quote goes, “but the momentum these runs of games generate is fantastic!” So it is with Lille OSC, who I thought might struggle with juggling a double-header against Slovan Bratislava amid three tough domestic fixtures against Brest, Monaco and Marseille. So far, Les Dogues have risen to that challenge admirably, winning three of four games and conceding only one goal in the process (the goal an early sucker-punch from Slovan in a game in which Lille nevertheless rallied to win 2-1, the non-win a goalless draw away to Marseille). Slovan themselves have shaken off the disappointment of that late collapse in northern France and should, on that evidence, pose a sterner test for Lille in Slovakia than might have been anticipated before the onset of the tournament proper. Lille have, as in their trip to the Faroes to play KÍ, struggled to break down determined defences on occasion this season – could their tired players suffer another upset in Bratislava, one that would leave top spot in Group A hanging in the balance until its final day?
3) Breiðablik‘s European bow going from bad to worse
It all looked so good for Breiðablik at one point. Their first-ever European group stage game, away to Maccabi Tel-Aviv, saw the Icelanders rally from 3-0 down to 3-2. While still a defeat, it suggested a fighting spirit which could carry the prospect of a bloody nose for at least one opponent somewhere down the line. Since then they have qualified for next season’s Conference League qualifiers by the skin of their teeth having taken one win from their last five league games, lost at home to Zorya, and then suffered a humiliating 5-0 defeat away to KAA Genk (they of the dubious crest). It’s certainly possible that they will recover to pull off a KÍ-esque upset in the darkness of Icelandic winter but, given that the 5-0 shellacking is the only football Breiðablik have played in the last month, it does not seem particularly likely. Genk, by contrast, finally have young forward Gift Orban back in the goals both domestically and in Europe after he came off the bench to score against Breiðablik last time out, have won their last four games in all competitions and, in Hugo Cuyper, have the competition’s top scorer when minutes played are factored in. It could get ugly.
4) The first leg of the War Derby takes place at last
Speaking of teams who barely played in a month, Maccabi Tel-Aviv travel to Poland to play Zorya Luhansk in Group B’s other fixture. There have been no professional football matches, either domestic or continental, in Israel since the Israeli state commenced its genocidal retribution for the 7 October massacres, and consequently Zorya and Maccabi’s game in Tel-Aviv has been provisionally pushed back until the highly optimistic date of 25 November. Zorya’s European games take place in Poland, so they face no similar obstacle to hosting Maccabi, and are ready to face a side from a country launching a vicious war of aggression with the irony resolutely lost on everyone involved. On a sporting level, Zorya ought to be favourites by dint of actually being match-fit but, given they have won three of the 11 games in all competitions they have played since the end of August and are firmly mired in the Ukrainian Prem’er Liha’s relegation battle, it is far from a foregone conclusion. From the river to the sea.
5) Efficient Plzeň can be the first to qualify. But at what cost?
Viktoria Plzeň are, along with Lille, the joint-lowest scorers of the eight sides topping their respective groups, having racked up a mere four goals in the group stage so far. They have averaged 43% possession across those games, two of which were against markedly inferior sides. They nevertheless sit six points clear at the top of Group C having won every game to date, with only Fenerbahçe and PAOK having emulated them. The football the Czech side play is beautiful only to those who prize efficiency as the highest virtue, but they are an experienced, stubborn and capable side who possess a canniness that Dinamo Zagreb lack. The Croats, on the receiving end of an eye-watering twenty-one fouls in the first leg of their double header, will doubtless face a similarly bracing welcome in Plzeň – not least because the Czechs will be the first team to qualify for the knockout stages this season if they win. Few people, least of all me, expected Dinamo to be sat on three points from as many games, having followed up a crushing opening-day win over Astana with two near-identical studies in profligate bluntness. Dinamo need a win from this game to stand any chance of topping Group C; unless they have taken a crash-course in street smarts over the past fortnight, that seems unlikely. I pity whichever side find themselves subjected to Plzeň’s tender embraces in the second knockout round.
6) Here’s how Astana can still win
Speaking of profligate bluntness, Conference icons Ballkani have contrived to inject yet more drama into Group C. The reason Plzeň can qualify so early is that all three teams below them have won one game each. In Gameweek 3 it was the Kosovar side’s turn to slip up, as they totally outplayed Astana by every single metric except the one that matters most. Despite cancelling out Astana’s seventh-minute opener with a near-instant reply of their own, and despite creating more and better chances and dominating possession, Ballkani were unable to respond to Astana’s second goal and consequently lost 2-1, at home, conceding two goals from two shots on target. Whichever side wins the return leg in Kazakhstan will be either level on points with, or ahead of, Dinamo with two games to go. The battle for second place in Group C looks like it could go down to the wire; perhaps Astana can take heart from getting off the mark last time out. Ballkani, meanwhile, are for all their heroics in serious danger of becoming the first side ever to finish bottom of a Conference League group on two separate occasions.
7) No end in sight for Beşiktaş‘ woes
Beşiktaş sacked Turkish managerial legend Şenol Güneş last month in response to their wretched start to the season, which has already left them all but out of the Turkish title race. New manager Burak Yılmaz (who you may remember as the veteran striker who spearheaded Lille’s shock Ligue 1 win two years ago) has just about managed to steady the ship domestically, winning two of his three league games so far and making Galatasaray work for a 2-1 win despite the Black Eagles being a man short for an hour, but in Europe he has had no such luck. His only Conference League game to date was Beşiktaş’ trip to the Arctic Circle to play Bodø/Glimt, where the Istanbul side duly followed in Roma’s footsteps by suffering a humiliating defeat. You would not, however, fancy this incarnation of Beşiktaş to repeat Roma’s feat of rebounding from that defeat to win the Conference League in the same season. Key signings such as Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain have been at best indifferent on the continental stage, and Beşiktaş, remarkably, sit bottom of Group D as a result. Bodø/Glimt, meanwhile, have all but wrapped up the Norwegian league title (they sit 9 points clear with four games to go) and will consequently be in a celebratory mood when they step out onto Beşiktaş’ hallowed turf. Beşiktaş need to win this game to have any chance of making the knockout stages, but in the circumstances another gut-punch by the away side to follow up their embarrassing loss to Lugano feels rather more likely.
8) Vanaken still the key for Club Brugge
It is very hard to overstate Hans Vanaken’s importance to Club Brugge. The giant Fleming is their captain, is on course to score his 100th league goal from midfield for the black-and-blue side at some point this season, and has scored one goal in each of their three Conference League games this season. Although the Belgian giants’ domestic campaign is collapsing around their ears – they have taken just four points from their last five games and now sit an abject twelve points behind leaders Union Saint-Gilloise – Brugge can take some comfort from their Conference campaign, where they have swept aside Bodø/Glimt and Lugano in successive away games after an unfortunate home draw to Beşiktaş in their first outing. Lugano have also taken four points from their last five games and are consequently likewise way off the domestic pace, so they head to Flanders in the knowledge that a loss would leave their season hanging by a thread. The same, in the circumstances, is broadly true of Brugge – but Lugano don’t have Hans Vanaken.
9) Crunch time for Legia
Legia Warszawa famously beat Aston Villa in their first Conference group game of the season, only to lose 1-0 to an AZ side who spent the last half-hour with 10 men due to a red card in their second. They did, however, show impressive powers of recovery in their trip to Mostar for the Ultranationalist Ultras Derby last time out, going down to a Zrinjski goal after half an hour only to immediately equalise and ultimately see out a 2-1 win. It’s therefore a little hard to get a measure of the kind of side Legia truly are – are they better represented by their brilliant counter-attacking win over Villa and their rally in the Balkans, or by their meek collapse in the Netherlands and a recent eye-watering streak of four straight league losses? A win tonight would leave Legia likely to qualify so long as they can at least draw at home to AZ in the group’s final gameweek. Zrinjski showed away to Aston Villa, however, that they can be a desperately hard team to break down when they sit deep, which would potentially neutralise Legia’s threat on the counter. Expect Zrinjski goalkeeper Marko Marić to be worked hard again whatever the final outcome.
10) Villa finally hitting their continental stride
As any fan of the Saudi Mags, Liverpool, Legia Warszawa, Wolves or Nottingham Forest could tell you, Unai Emery’s Aston Villa have been largely dreadful away from home this season, rarely more so than in their wretched Group E opener away to Legia. The Villans therefore picked a good time to put in their first genuinely commanding away performance since swatting aside Hibernian in August. They were clinical and incisive away to AZ in Alkmaar, 4-0 up inside an hour before the Dutch side eventually managed a consolation goal. The return trip to Villa Park, where the home side have been imperious all season, represents a chance for Villa to finally put their stamp on the group, having found it incredibly hard work to break down Zrinjski a month ago. AZ themselves, although still unbeaten domestically, are nevertheless in serious danger of having their European campaign brought to an end before Christmas if they fail to take any points back to the Netherlands with them – because, as Villa know better than most, heading to a febrile Polish Army Stadium in need of a result is not a pleasant experience.
11) Ferencváros – Genk may decide qualification
As noted previously in these pages, Genk have proven inordinately fond of draws this season. That trait showed itself again at home to Ferencváros last time out, where Genk (very) narrowly edged the xG battle but were held to a 0-0 draw on the actual pitch where actual football takes place. Genk are, like Brugge, way off the championship pace domestically, but are one of three teams – along with Ferencváros and Fiorentina – to sit on five points, as all three have drawn against each other but beaten the hapless Čukarički. Assuming that Fiorentina, on paper a far better side than either Genk or Ferencváros, rouse themselves in the second half of the group stage, and assuming that both Genk and Ferencváros beat Čukarički, Genk’s trip to Budapest is likely to be the game that decides which of these two teams qualify for the knockout stages. Despite a chastening loss away to lowly Kecskemét in their last domestic fixture, Ferencváros might actually be narrow favourites given their home advantage. The match could, of course, wind up as a draw, in which case what is essentially a three-team group will continue to pose more questions than answers. It should be an excellent game of football whatever the outcome.
12) Curtains for Čukarički
It is not a good time to be facing Fiorentina. Europe’s premier purple-shirted side outplayed Juventus in a pulsating Serie A clash on Sunday, only to go down to a 1-0 defeat against a sublimely ugly display of Massimiliano Allegri’s favoured brand of sufferball. They will therefore be out for blood when they hop across the Adriatic to play Čukarički, and with the best will in the world you would not fancy the Serb side to dodge the blows. They have looked singularly incapable of resisting any side they have played in Group F so far, have one goal to their name (they went 1-0 up away to Ferencváros in Gameweek 1 only to emphatically lose 3-1), and lost 6-0 in Florence in the first half of this double-header. Defeat here will leave Čukarički all but eliminated with two games left to play – although given how indifferent their domestic form has been of late, with their sole win since September a Serbian Cup win on penalties over second-tier FK Radnički Beograd, it might be a mercy to have the Conference over and done with.
13) Perfect pole-position PAOK poised to painfully punish Pittodrites
At the halfway point, Group G’s (somewhat) surprising leaders are PAOK. It has been a mightily impressive campaign from the Thessalonikan side, who have won every group game so far and look primed to repeat or even better their 2021/22 run to the Conference quarter-finals. This is particularly remarkable given that, with 20 minutes of normal time to go in their game away to Aberdeen, PAOK trailed 2-0 and looked set to be victims of an upset which would have blown Group G wide open. As soon as PAOK got their first reducing goal, however, it looked like there would only be one winner in Scotland, and so it proved – although it took until the 96th minute for PAOK to seal the deal and make it 3-2 courtesy of a penalty. Such is the cruel nature of European group-stage football. Another PAOK win in the cauldron that is the Toumba will leave the Greek side on 12 points, guaranteed knockout football. Despite the fine form of Aberdeen’s Bojan Miovski, I would not advise betting against it.
14) Eintracht’s fine form continues
HJK were unfortunate to have their matches with Eintracht Frankfurt fall when they did. After unconvincingly winning their opening game to Aberdeen, then losing away to PAOK in an upset which was nevertheless on the cards, Eintracht have rebounded in style. They have played six competitive matches since the PAOK debacle, winning five (the other was a pulsating 3-3 draw at home to Dortmund), and thrashed HJK 6-0 in their last Conference League outing. That has rather checked HJK’s own momentum – a creditable 3-2 loss at home to PAOK followed by an excellent away performance in a 1-1 draw to Aberdeen – and, despite the welcome grandeur of the occasion, they will not be looking forward to taking up hosting duties against Eintracht tonight. Any kind of result for the Finns in Helsinki would be a wonderful and remarkable upset. Rather more likely is that Group G settles into a straight shootout between Eintracht and PAOK for top spot, as the Germans continue to make the most of life after Randal Kolo Muani.
15) Fenerbahçe still have one 100% record to protect
All good things must eventually come to an end, even Fenerbahçe’s incredible 100% winning streak in all competitions this season. And so it came to pass that the Yellow Canaries (they have precisely one thing in common with Norwich) finally succumbed in the Süper Lig, scoring two penalties but also suffering a red card in the course of a 3-2 defeat at home to Trabzonspor. In the Conference League, however, Fenerbahçe have still won every game they have played, including qualifiers, and head to Bulgaria for the second leg of their double-header with Ludogorets on the back of a 3-1 win in the first leg in Istanbul. Ludogorets, although their only goal came courtesy of a Rodrigo Becão own goal, were themselves much-improved in that game, and could pull off a shock result that would leave them with a chance of making the knockouts if Fener aren’t careful. Having said that, Fred remains top of the Conference League assist charts, while Miha Zajc showed his goalscoring threat from midfield in the course of bagging a brace and modern journeyman Michy Batshuayi possesses goalscoring guile up top. A win which guarantees Fener’s progression to the knockouts feels rather more likely.
16) Nordsjælland show the value of the Conference League for young talent
Despite all the various murkiness surrounding FC Nordsjælland, the Danish side are inarguably very good at bringing through young talent – with Simon Adingra at Brighton only the most prominent recent example. The Conference League, a little more forgiving than other European competitions but still deeply competitive, is proving its value as a part of many young players’ education, none more so this season than Nordsjælland’s Christian Rasmussen. The 20-year-old, back at Nordsjælland on loan after moving to Ajax’s academy four years ago, is yet to score in the Danish Superliga this season but has two goals in the Conference already. One of them came against Spartak Trnava last time out, and the Slovaks will doubtless approach this week’s trip to Denmark with some trepidation. They have been one of the Conference League’s most disappointing sides so far, with only a solitary goal in three games (a late consolation at home to Fenerbahçe) to their name courtesy of the young winger Kelvin Ofori, one of their few bright sparks. Although Trnava’s domestic form has improved markedly since the start of the group stage, they look all but eliminated from the Conference already.
