“All sparks will burn out in the end”, as Editors once sang, and so we find ourselves at the end of the Conference League’s third-ever group stage which, with the introduction of a “Swiss system” next season, is also set to be its last-ever. And what a group stage it’s been! Every group bar one has at least one qualificatory question as yet unanswered, and even Group G has a very tight race to dodge the wooden spoon. Let’s have a gander at the games together, dear reader, one last time.
Pick of the Games:
Legia Warszawa – AZ (17:45 GMT)
Ferencváros – Fiorentina (17:45 GMT)
Genk – Čukarički (17:45 GMT)
Fenerbahçe – Spartak Trnava (17:45 GMT)
Ludogorets – Nordsjælland (17:45 GMT)
Dinamo Zagreb – Ballkani (20:00 GMT)
Viktoria Plzeň – Astana (20:00 GMT)
Club Brugge – Bodø/Glimt (20:00 GMT)
1) Lille the last chapter of the KÍ story
Faroese side KÍ grabbed the attention of the European footballing world when they reached the Conference League by going deep enough into Champions League qualification. They managed more shocks after that, with an emphatic 3-0 win over Olimpija and a 0-0 home draw against Lille that constituted a defensive masterclass. Olimpija had the last laugh, however, as KÍ’s talisman Árni Frederiksberg went from hero to zero courtesy of a straight red card an hour into the return fixture. The Slovenes duly scored two late goals to ensure KÍ joined them in elimination. Lille, meanwhile, have gone from strength to strength, a little too prone to drawing for their own good but ultimately guaranteed progression here and in with a shout of Champions League qualification through Ligue 1 next season. Frederiksberg is available for this game, but even that seems unlikely to affect the outcome here.
2) Slovan slip under the radar
Slovan Bratislava are set to conclude their campaign in fittingly low-key style. The Slovak side have been consummate flat-track bullies in this campaign, losing and drawing (the latter an admittedly impressive result) against Lille but beating KÍ home and away and Olimpija in Slovenia. Tonight they face the lowly Ljubljanans at home knowing that a win would, if Lille slip up at home to KÍ, see them top the group. Such an outcome is hardly likely, but that it remains on the cards on the final day is an indicator of how solidly effective their campaign has been. All three of their victories have come by a mere one-goal margin – and all three wins got them three points each regardless.
3) Gent and Maccabi in top-spot shootout
Gent (they of the dubious crest) are, as was almost universally expected of them prior to the outset of the campaign, top of their group. Young prodigy Gift Orban is firmly back in the goals, while the likes of Hugo Cuypers have also had impressive campaigns behind him. They head to Serbia tonight, however, knowing that they need to remain undefeated to be assured of topping the group. The game against Maccabi Tel-Aviv represents a duel for top spot because the Israeli side are only a point behind them in second; it is taking place in Bačka Topola because Israel’s genocidal war on the people of Gaza has rendered Tel Aviv unsafe to host UEFA matches.
4) Breiða-bleak
Zorya Luhansk, with the admittedly substantial mitigation of playing their European games in Poland, have been terrible both domestically and in this season’s Conference League. Luckily for them, Breiðablik have been even worse, with the Icelanders yet to pick up even a single point. Their Conference League fairy-tale has turned into a nightmare. The Ukrainian side, having failed to qualify from their 2021-22 Conference League group, have compounded that failure in a weaker group this time around, but sit on four points and therefore cannot be caught by Breiðablik no matter the result here. With no stakes whatsoever this could turn into a carefree classic. It could also not. I think one outcome is more likely.
5) Perfect Plzeň?
Viktoria Plzeň have won all five of their group games to date, to guarantee top spot and a place in the round of 16. They have done this while conceding one goal in the process. It has been a seriously impressive campaign from the Czechs, who have humbled the mighty Dinamo Zagreb home and away, and now get to conclude their campaign by welcoming Astana to picturesque western Bohemia. The Kazakh side, presented with a chance to all but guarantee qualification at home to Dinamo last time out, duly lost to the Croats for the fourth time this season and must now not just get a result but win in Czechia to have even a chance of progressing. Plzeň, by contrast, have the incentive of becoming only the second-ever team to top a Conference League group with maximum points (the first being West Ham last season). Plzeň have only scored seven goals in their five matches to date but this could yet turn into a bloodbath.
6) Dismal Dinamo somehow set to qualify
Let’s be clear here – Dinamo Zagreb, outside of their seemingly inescapable psychological hold over Astana, have been truly dreadful in this season’s Conference League, second-best in both their games against Plzeň and deservedly beaten away in Kosovo too. Despite this, they are in pole position to become maybe the least deserving side ever to qualify from a Conference League group. Standing in their way are Ballkani, their Kosovar conquerors earlier in the group stage. Intriguingly, Ballkani will qualify if they beat Dinamo and Astana lose away to Plzeň. That would not represent the most likely outcome in this group – Dinamo are, after all, at home this time – but it would be incredibly funny. Neutrals might wish to keep their fingers crossed.
7) Can brilliant Brugge best Bodø/Glimt again?
Both Club Brugge and Bodø/Glimt have already qualified from Group D. Top spot, however, is still up for grabs. Brugge are unbeaten, part of which entailed beating Bodø/Glimt in northern Norway, but they only won that 1-0. Should the Norwegians beat Brugge by a two-goal or greater margin, they will therefore top the group. That does not, however, seem particularly likely. Brugge have talisman Hans Vanaken back from suspension, have that unbeaten record to protect, and aside from falling victim to a deeply unfortunate smash-and-grab draw at home to Beşiktaş have been one of the competition’s standout sides. They should be able to give that résumé one last flourish here.
8) Beşiktaş.
The less said the better when it comes to Beşiktaş’ car crash of a Conference campaign. If you’re a Beşiktaş fan, that is – to everyone else it has been a very, very funny campaign. Relative to the quality and wealth at their disposal, Beşiktaş’ solitary point from five games might be the single worst group campaign any Conference League side has ever mustered. As noted above, even that solitary point was simply an (admittedly well-executed) opportunistic burglary in Belgium rather than the product of a good performance, and the Black Eagles were duly utterly humiliated at home to Brugge last time out to really hammer the point home, losing 5-0. They travel to Switzerland, and Conference debutants Lugano, tonight knowing that they gave up a 2-0 lead with 10 minutes to go to lose 3-2 at home to Lugano, having had Valentin Rosier sent off for an awful tackle with half an hour of the match left. I would say that revenge is on the cards tonight, but Lugano have also already been eliminated -so all either team has to play for is third place. Beşiktaş need to win to avoid that. Good luck!
9) Villa finally roaring in Europe
I thought Aston Villa stood a good chance of winning all six games in this group and finishing on 18 points. That went out of the window in Gameweek 1, when the Villans suffered a chastening but entirely deserved defeat away to Legia Warszawa. Villa have nevertheless won all four subsequent games, including the home fixture over Legia, to guarantee qualification, and merely need to avoid defeat away to Zrinjski Mostar to ensure top spot. That seems eminently likely, even with squad rotation factored into the bargain – Villa are purring domestically, coming into this game on the back of two successive epochal wins over Manchester City and Arsenal, whereas Zrinjski have lost all four games since their own opening-day upset win over AZ. The other game in this group should furnish more excitement.
10) AZ enter the lion’s den
AZ are guaranteed qualification if they win away to Legia Warszawa tonight. In Greek striker Vangelis Pavlidis, they have a goal threat who is in truly devastating form this season. They also won at home to Legia in these sides’ first meeting despite a red card with 25 minutes to go. So ends the good news. Legia, although in indifferent domestic form, will be sure to make the Stadion Wojska Polskiego a true bearpit (to mix my metaphors) tonight, having already seen off both Villa and Zrinjski here so far. The Polish side only need a point to qualify, but their fans will be urging them to go for the jugular. If AZ can hold their nerve and keep their cool, they could nick a result here – instead it feels rather more likely that they will succumb. It ought to be a firecracker of a game whatever the outcome.
11) Čukarički and Genk mêlée to minimise mockery
“In practice,” said a Conference League oracle before the Group Stage kicked off, “you could be forgiven for wondering if [Genk] will be looking nervously over their shoulders”, with qualification expected but hardly guaranteed. And so it has proven. Genk now find themselves in third place on the final matchday, three points behind Ferencváros, and rather teetering on the brink. Luckily for the misfiring Flemings, their final opposition are Čukarički. The Serb side have been truly dreadful during this campaign, losing every single game, and are already both eliminated and guaranteed to finish bottom of the group. One substantial goal remains, however. Lincoln Red Imps, in 2021-22, are statistically the worst team in Conference League history, losing all six games with a goal difference of -15 and scoring twice. Čukarički currently sit on a goal difference of -12, having also scored twice. Can they avoid the most spelk-riddled of wooden spoons – and maybe even bloody Genk’s noses in the process?
12) It’s make or break for Ferencváros
Unlike Genk, Ferencváros have their destiny in their own hands. Unfortunately for the mighty Magyars, they finish the group stage against a Fiorentina side still smarting from their failure to finish off nine-man Roma at the weekend. All Ferencváros need to do to secure a first-ever progression from a continental group stage is avoid defeat. Lose, however, and they will go out if Genk beat Čukarički (assuming they lose to Fiorentina by more than one goal and/or Genk beat Čukarički by more than one goal. The latter seems eminently plausible). That would represent real heartbreak for a team who, for all their connections to the Hungarian state (the club’s longstanding president is a Fidesz MP), have made relatively light work of a very tough-looking group. If, however, Ferencváros can pull off one more upset and manage a win in front of their fervent home support, they will top the group. Group F promises to be a nailbiter right up to the final whistle.
13) Promising PAOK can sign off in style
PAOK have lost once in all competitions in the last three months, away to fellow title rivals AEK Athens. Their only slip-up in the Conference League was a 2-2 draw at home to Aberdeen, of all sides, but their mightily impressive home-and-away double over Eintracht Frankfurt means that hiccup has not stopped PAOK comfortably topping their group. Things therefore look bleak for HJK – the Helsinkians head down to Thessaloniki rather more in hope than expectation, only a point behind Aberdeen in third but unlikely to get the result they need to dodge the wooden spoon. There is a chance that they’ll catch PAOK on an off-day, but realistically it seems more likely that the Greek side, in front of a crowd in the Toumba cauldron who will be as celebratory as they are vociferous, will stroll to a celebratory victory.
14) Damage limitation for Aberdeen
Aberdeen can count themselves a little unfortunate to be on only three points and out of the qualification picture going into the final day, but equally many of their wounds have been self-inflicted. The Scottish side have done their country’s coefficient no favours with three draws, two defeats and no wins from five games – numbers that could have been distinctly better had they not developed such a pronounced habit of giving up early goals to their opponents and flaking in late rallies. Their 2-2 draw away to PAOK summed up both the best and worst of this enigmatic team, whose main positive to take away from this campaign is the form of young forward Luís Henriques de Barros Lopes (known as “Duk”. Your guess is as good as mine). Their league form has once again tended towards the indifferent of late, so it is a less than opportune time to be hosting an Eintracht Frankfurt side doubtless still seething about their very conspicuous failure to top this group. Don’t, however, completely discount the possibility of Aberdeen pulling off an upset win. Coming long after such a result would matter for either team, it would be in keeping with the Scots’ peculiar sense of timing.
15) Fenerbahçe facing farcical finish
I was effusive in my praise for Fenerbahçe after they topped Group H at the halfway point with three wins from three games. The Istanbul giants duly lost both their next two games, the second a true humiliation away to Nordsjælland, and find themselves third in the group as a result. Happily, they are behind second-placed Ludogorets only on goal difference, and even more happily they conclude matters at home to Spartak Trnava, comfortably the worst side in the group. The Czechs’ only point to date came in a draw with group leaders Nordsjælland in Gameweek 4 and they have seldom looked equipped for the rigours of European competition. The Yellow Canaries, by contrast, have talismanic midfielder Fred (yes, that one) back from injury, have returned to the summit of the temporarily-suspended Süper Lig courtesy of a big derby win over Conference League running joke Beşiktaş at the weekend, and are heavy favourites tonight. They’ll surely manage qualification from here. Right?
16) Nordsjælland top the group – but could still go out
It has, for all their backroom murk, been an immensely impressive campaign from Nordsjælland. They are the Conference League’s top scorers, having reeled off a frankly ridiculous 17 goals in five games, and top the group going into the final day. And yet, and yet. If they lose tonight, and Fenerbahçe beat Spartak Trnava, Nordsjælland will exit the group on 10 points. So there is plenty of jeopardy as the Danes step out onto the pitch in deepest Bulgaria tonight, if anything only magnified by their 7-1 humiliation of Ludogorets in their first meeting back in Denmark. Nordsjælland do, however, have a vast array of young talent in their side, including Benjamin Nygren, who has yet to fully live up to the early promise that once took him to Genk but nevertheless bagged a hat-trick against Fenerbahçe last time out. The Danes are yet to win away in the group stage this season; there is no better time to start than the present. Ludogorets, meanwhile, who are in fine domestic form, must win tonight to ensure progression stays in their hands, but have won both their home games thus far. If the Bulgarians can steel themselves and pull off a win, they can consider that 7-1 ignominy on the shores of the Kattegat well and truly avenged. This ought to be appointment viewing.
